Its Sunday Night March 1st 2020.
The futures are down about 300 points. Last week, the market was down about 12%.
Guest Post From Reminiscences of an American Capitalist:
I’ve been through many panics and selloffs in my years as an investor and trader, although each is unique. This one has a wildcard component of science, pandemic, and contagion. There are so many unknown unknowns that it’s extremely challenging to know what comes next.
See also: Lessons learned from the 2008 Crisis
Here are some thoughts and strategies I’ve had throughout the day that may be helpful to you.
You Don’t Have to Watch Every Tick
There is so much attention on the stock market that it’s easy to get sucked in to the drama element of it all. Resist it. Fear and speculation coupled with CNBC talking heads is a prescription for bad decisions. Jim Cramer famously told investors to sell at Dow $6K on the Today Show.
In fact, you don’t have to trade or make any decisions right now. The premise of all CNBC guests is that action is better than inaction. Most of the time in the markets, that’s simply not true.
I’m Missing Out
What if you’re not missing out? I run value screens almost every other day. And the past year and a half there have been practically no good opportunities. And guess what, even after a 12% selloff, there are still few opportunities. I’m watching energy names like OXY and XOP and a few energy and oil names, but these aren’t Great opportunities by a long shot.
Wait for a Base
I had this post-it on my monitor for Many years. Wait for a base. Which means don’t try to catch a falling knife. But, wait for the stock to bottom and base. It saved me a lot of money over the years.
Know What you Own
After I finish this post, I’m going to check my deltas and positions. So that I know if I need to make adjustments. Know what you own in terms of stocks and groups. As well as the level of risk you can withstand.
All or None Thinking
In the self help realm, there is a distinction that successful people are able to make partial decisions while less successful people fall into a trap of all or none thinking. This is very useful here. You don’t have to decide to be in or out of the market per se. If you’re uncomfortable with a position, there are typically many possible solutions. Look for solutions. Sell Calls. Sell one third. Sell one quarter.
Take Care of Yourself
Seems like an easy one, but its not. There is a lot of excitement right now. The overnight futures are trading. The Pajama Traders. Many traders and investors will make the mistake of staying up too late or checking the futures in the middle of the night. This doesn’t help with good decision making. Sleep. Rest. Recharge. These are fast moving markets but you don’t have to see every tick. Think long term.
Valuation in a World Turned Upside Down
What is a business worth if the next six months or a year will be a disaster, but the long term may be fine? It’s an interesting question. And it cant be answered today or this week. It depends on many factors for each business. Debt is a huge issue. As a value investor, this is where owning companies that have a strong balance sheet, is a huge advantage. Value investors have under performed so much recently that some began to wonder if, “Value investing was dead.” Probably not going to see more of those headlines. We have entered a world where valuation matters again. Leverage matters. So, know what you own. Low interest rates will help many companies survive for some time, but that is no guarantee.
Focus on the Big Picture
What are my investment goals long term? We don’t know how long this will play out, but every other crisis has turned out for the best for long term investors. The 1987 crash, the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Crash. This country is incredibly resilient and full of smart companies that will lead the way. The Big Picture is always one of progress.
Goodnight friends.